Why It Matters
Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat has become a test case for whether independent candidates can succeed in deeply red states where Democrats struggle. The outcome could influence how parties approach similar races across the Mountain West, including Idaho’s neighboring contests.
With no incumbent running for the first time in fifty years, Montana Democrats face a stark fundraising gap that threatens their ability to compete in November.
What Happened
Five Democratic candidates are competing in Montana’s June 2 primary for U.S. Senate. Together, they reported $123,629 in cash on hand at the end of March, with just 85 combined contributions from Montana residents.
Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, has raised ten times more than all Democratic candidates combined. Bodnar’s campaign is staffed by former members of Democratic Senator Jon Tester’s team and has attracted 329 Montana contributors.
Republican Kurt Alme, backed by outgoing Senator Steve Daines, trails Bodnar in fundraising by $400,000. Daines withdrew from the race minutes before the candidate filing deadline, surprising political observers.
By The Numbers
Democratic candidate Reilly Neill holds $103,000 of the Democrats’ total $123,629 cash on hand. Both Bodnar and Alme reached the million-dollar fundraising mark within weeks of launching their campaigns. Alme has received donations from 159 Montana residents. Montana’s 2024 Senate race cost approximately $300 million, with Republican Tim Sheehy defeating three-term incumbent Jon Tester by more than 43,000 votes.
Zoom Out
Montana Democrats have struggled in recent Senate elections. Tester received 276,305 votes in 2024, while former two-term Democratic Governor Steve Bullock received 272,463 votes in 2020. Both men lost by no less than 43,000 votes, marking the first losses of their political careers.
Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said Bodnar is the only non-Republican capable of winning the race, though he remains a significant underdog. Three political committees that previously supported Montana Democrats have backed Bodnar exclusively.
Independent candidates in red states have historically outperformed Democrats but fallen short of winning. Recent examples include Greg Orman in Kansas, Evan McMullin in Utah, and Dan Osborn in Nebraska, none of whom came within five points of victory.
What’s Next
Montana’s Democratic primary is scheduled for June 2. Bodnar is currently gathering signatures to qualify for the November general election ballot. The sparse Democratic fundraising suggests limited appetite among party donors for another expensive Senate battle after the costly 2024 race.
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