Montana Senate Race Sees Underfunded Democrats Challenged by Well-Financed Independent
Why It Matters
Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat — only the third such race in fifty years without an incumbent on the ballot — is shaping up as a contest where Democrats may struggle to remain relevant. The outcome could determine whether Republicans hold or expand their Senate majority, and the dynamics mirror broader trends playing out across red-state America.
What Happened
Five Democrats are competing in Montana’s June 2 primary for the chance to face Republican Kurt Alme and independent Seth Bodnar in the general election. The field includes Michael Black Wolf, Alani Bankhead, Michael Hummert, Christopher Kehoe, and Reilly Neill — none of whom have generated the kind of donor enthusiasm or financial firepower seen in recent Montana Senate contests.
The Democratic candidates together reported just over 23,600 in cash on hand at the end of March, with Neill holding the lion’s share at roughly 03,000. The combined field drew only 85 individual contributions from Montana residents — a stark contrast to the energy that surrounded Democrat Jon Tester’s losing 2024 campaign against Republican Tim Sheehy, a race that ultimately cost both sides around
- Five Democrats in the June 2 primary with a combined 23,629 in cash on hand
- Bodnar holds roughly a 10-to-1 cash advantage over the entire Democratic field
- Bodnar leads Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme in fundraising by approximately $400,000
- In 2024, Tester received 276,305 votes but lost to Sheehy by more than 43,000 votes
- In 2020, former Gov. Steve Bullock drew 272,463 votes and similarly fell short by 43,000-plus
00 million.
Meanwhile, Bodnar — a former University of Montana president who stepped down to enter the race — has assembled a campaign staffed by veterans of Tester’s operation. He holds a cash-on-hand advantage of roughly ten to one over the combined Democratic field and has reported 329 Montana contributors. He also leads Alme in fundraising by approximately
00,000, with both candidates crossing the million-dollar threshold shortly after launching their campaigns.
Republican Sen. Steve Daines, who had been expected to run for re-election, withdrew from the race just before the filing deadline, upending the field and elevating Alme as his preferred successor.
By the Numbers
- Five Democrats in the June 2 primary with a combined 23,629 in cash on hand
- Bodnar holds roughly a 10-to-1 cash advantage over the entire Democratic field
- Bodnar leads Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme in fundraising by approximately
- Bodnar holds roughly a 10-to-1 cash advantage over the entire Democratic field
- Bodnar leads Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme in fundraising by approximately $400,000
- In 2024, Tester received 276,305 votes but lost to Sheehy by more than 43,000 votes
- In 2020, former Gov. Steve Bullock drew 272,463 votes and similarly fell short by 43,000-plus
00,000
- In 2024, Tester received 276,305 votes but lost to Sheehy by more than 43,000 votes
- In 2020, former Gov. Steve Bullock drew 272,463 votes and similarly fell short by 43,000-plus
The Independent Factor
Political analysts suggest the real competition may not be between Democrats and Bodnar, but rather whether Bodnar can consolidate the non-Republican vote. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, offered a blunt assessment: Democrats may actually be the ones pulling support away from Bodnar rather than the other way around.
“If Bodnar and Democrats can’t get on the same page, Republicans are going to win this seat anyway,” Kondik said, adding that Bodnar is the only non-Republican he sees as capable of winning — though still a significant underdog.
Three political committees that previously backed Montana Democrats in both House and Senate races have thrown their support exclusively behind Bodnar. Former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer has endorsed Neill and expects Bodnar to pull support from whoever wins the primary, though outside analysts dispute that framing.
Kondik drew comparisons to other red-state independent candidates — Greg Orman in Kansas in 2014, Evan McMullin in Utah in 2022, and Dan Osborn in Nebraska in 2024 — who outperformed expectations but none came within five points of actually winning.
A Closer Look at the Democratic Field
Among the Democratic hopefuls, Bankhead has drawn attention for her background. An Air Force veteran with 21 years of service, she later worked for an international nonprofit focused on combating child sex trafficking, overseeing operations across South America. She has made government accountability and a multi-step approach to expanding healthcare access central to her campaign. New voting rules are in effect as the primary gets underway, adding another layer of complexity for all candidates seeking to mobilize supporters.
Michael Black Wolf, a member of the Gros Ventre tribe, has leaned into his everyman appeal on the campaign trail — a pitch that draws laughs but reflects the party’s broader challenge of connecting with working-class Montana voters who have drifted steadily toward Republicans over the past decade.
What’s Next
Montana Democrats will choose their nominee on June 2. Bodnar, still gathering signatures to qualify for the November ballot, is expected to formally confirm his place in the general election race in the coming weeks. With Alme consolidating Republican support and Bodnar competing aggressively for the political center, the Democratic nominee will face a steep climb in a state that has trended increasingly red at the federal level.
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