Historic Election Defeat for Japan’s Ruling Party
Japan’s long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major electoral defeat in the July 2025 upper-house elections, losing its majority in both houses of the Diet for the first time in decades. The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito lost 19 upper-house seats, compounding earlier losses in the lower house. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the result a “harsh verdict” but vowed to remain in office despite mounting calls for his resignation.
The LDP remains the largest single party but faces an emboldened opposition, particularly from two nationalist and populist parties that made historic gains: the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the more hardline Sanseito (Do It Yourself Party).
The Rise of Nationalist and Populist Parties
The DPP more than doubled its upper-house seats to 22, while Sanseito leapt from just two seats to 15. Both parties capitalized on economic discontent, generational divides, and frustration with entrenched political elites. Voter turnout rose to 59%, the highest in over a decade.
Exit polls showed younger voters, particularly those under 40, overwhelmingly backed the two new parties, which promised lower taxes, curbs on immigration, higher wages, and policies to relieve the financial burden on working-age Japanese. Older voters remained loyal to the LDP and the main liberal opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party.
Sanseito, led by Sohei Kamiya, explicitly adopted a “Japanese First” agenda, drawing inspiration from U.S. MAGA-style politics and European right-wing movements. The party grew out of a YouTube-driven conspiracy movement during the pandemic but broadened its appeal by railing against immigration, promoting traditional family values, and offering generous child benefits while cutting welfare for foreigners.
Economic and Social Frustrations Drive Shift
Voter discontent has been fueled by rising prices, stagnant wages, and growing pessimism about the future. Inflation and a weak yen have pushed up food and living costs, while the growing number of foreign workers—now about 3% of the workforce—has become a lightning rod for nationalist rhetoric.
Many young voters feel overburdened by taxes funding retirees’ benefits and see little opportunity for economic advancement. Sanseito and DPP have tapped into these frustrations, accusing the LDP of protecting special interests and ignoring generational concerns.
What’s Next for Japanese Politics?
The LDP’s path forward is uncertain. Analysts suggest the party may shift rightward to reclaim conservative voters or replace Ishiba with a fresher face, such as Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi or hardline nationalist Takaichi Sanae.
Even without a majority, the LDP remains a powerful force. But the strong showing by Sanseito and the DPP signals a lasting realignment rather than a fleeting protest vote.
As Temple University’s Jeff Kingston put it: “Younger voters are looking for change agents. But it takes more than a protest vote to become a national movement.”
For now, the political establishment faces growing pressure to address young voters’ concerns and adapt to an increasingly polarized and populist political climate.
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