
Moscow Condemns U.S. Action While Weighing Strategic Impact
Russian officials publicly criticized the United States following the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a surprise operation, calling it a violation of international law and a dangerous precedent.
Behind official statements, analysts and pro-Kremlin commentators have described a more complex reaction inside Russia, marked by unease over the loss of a key ally and recognition of the operation’s effectiveness.
Comparisons Drawn to Russia’s War in Ukraine
Commentary in Russian political circles has contrasted the speed of the U.S. operation in Venezuela with Moscow’s prolonged military campaign in Ukraine.
Pro-government commentators noted that the swift capture of Maduro resembled the type of operation Russia originally envisioned when it launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Several analysts said the contrast has prompted renewed scrutiny of Russian intelligence failures and battlefield resistance in Ukraine.
Loss of a Longstanding Ally
Venezuela has been a close political and strategic partner of Russia for more than two decades. The two countries have cooperated on energy, arms sales, and diplomatic alignment against U.S. influence.
Despite recent public pledges of support for Maduro’s government, Russian officials made no effort to intervene during the U.S. operation. Analysts said Moscow lacked both the capacity and strategic incentive to respond.
Ukraine Remains Moscow’s Priority
Foreign policy experts said Russia’s primary focus remains Ukraine, where the Kremlin continues to face military and economic pressure.
Maintaining a workable relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump on Ukraine-related matters is seen as far more important to Moscow than defending a distant ally in Latin America.
Russian analysts noted that challenging Washington over Venezuela could jeopardize broader negotiations that Moscow views as strategically critical.
Economic and Military Consequences for Russia
Russia’s loss of influence in Venezuela carries tangible costs.
Analysts warned that a U.S.-aligned government in Caracas could grant American military and defense experts access to Venezuelan armed forces equipment supplied by Russia, including advanced air-defense systems delivered over the past decade.
Russia has also extended billions of dollars in loans to Venezuela, much of which may now be unrecoverable.
Concerns Over Global Oil Markets
Energy analysts in Moscow expressed concern that U.S. access to Venezuela’s oil reserves could increase global supply and place downward pressure on oil prices.
Lower prices would threaten one of Russia’s most important revenue streams at a time when its economy remains under strain from sanctions and war-related costs.
Several Russian business figures publicly warned that expanded U.S. influence over global oil production could weaken Moscow’s leverage in energy markets.
Debate Over the Global Order
Some Russian officials and commentators framed the U.S. action as further evidence of a shift away from international norms toward a power-based global system.
They argued that the operation reinforces a world order in which military and economic strength determine outcomes, a model Russian leaders have long described as inevitable.
Former Russian officials characterized the episode as confirmation that major powers now act openly in pursuit of national interests rather than legal frameworks.
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