Why It Matters
Montana’s rivers, reservoirs, and agricultural water supplies are heading into summer in precarious condition after a winter of record-warm temperatures left the state’s snowpack at historic lows. The shortfall threatens drinking water, irrigation, and could worsen what experts are already warning may be a difficult fire season across the Mountain West.
The situation places Montana at the center of a regional water crisis. Neighboring states in the Upper Colorado River Basin are also bracing for mandatory water cuts amid similarly low snowpack conditions, underscoring how widespread the problem has become across the West.
What Happened
As of early April — when Montana’s snowpack monitoring stations are typically recording their peak levels for the water year — one-third of the longer-standing monitoring sites are posting record-low totals. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) released the finding in its April Water Supply Outlook on Tuesday.
The report revealed that some low-elevation snowpack monitoring sites had completely melted out by April 1, the date they would normally be hitting their annual peak. The “water year,” which hydrologists use to track snow accumulation and anticipated spring runoff, begins on October 1 each year.
NRCS water supply specialist Eric Larson told Montana Free Press on April 8 that above-average temperatures across the state — and the West more broadly — are largely responsible for the poor snowpack conditions. He noted that despite decent precipitation levels in March, many basins are holding very little snow because precipitation fell as rain rather than snow.
“At my local ski hill, Bridger Bowl, it was raining at the top of the ridge throughout parts of the winter when it should have been snowing,” Larson said, describing a season he characterized as a “unique year” marked by warm spells that erased snow accumulation between storms.
By the Numbers
- 84 of 250 snowpack monitoring stations with at least 20 years of data are sitting at record-low levels as of late March.
- 22 additional stations are recording their second-lowest year on record.
- 6 to 11 degrees warmer than average — the temperature departure experienced across most of Montana over the past 120-day period, according to the National Weather Service.
- 7% — the snow-water equivalent recorded at a 6,700-foot monitoring site in the Boulder drainage of south-central Montana, compared to normal April 1 levels at a nearby 8,700-foot site that was at its typical snowpack.
- Livingston, Montana is recording its warmest year to date since records began in 1948. Billings is experiencing its second-warmest start to a year since its records began in 1934.
Zoom Out
The crisis is not isolated to Montana. Above-average temperatures have suppressed snowpack across the broader Mountain West, creating strain on water systems from the Northern Rockies to the Colorado River Basin. Farmers, ranchers, municipalities, and power utilities that depend on steady spring and summer runoff from mountain snowfields are facing an uncertain season.
Basins in particularly poor shape in Montana include the Jefferson, Gallatin, Bighorn, Powder, and Tongue River drainages — areas critical to agriculture and livestock operations in the region. When precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, it does not sustain rivers and reservoirs the same way gradually melting snowpack does over the summer months.
National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist Nick Vertz confirmed that virtually the entire state of Montana experienced above-average temperatures this winter, with the warmth extending well above normal even at high elevations — accelerating snowmelt even when accumulation did occur.
The link between the low snowpack and wildfire risk remains difficult to forecast with precision. Experts say the state’s fire season outlook depends heavily on how much precipitation falls over the next few months. Dry, warm conditions heading into summer historically correlate with elevated wildfire danger across the region.
What’s Next
State and federal water managers will continue monitoring precipitation and temperature trends through April and May, the months that will largely determine whether rivers and reservoirs can partially recover before summer demand peaks. Larson and other NRCS specialists will update their water supply outlook as additional data becomes available.
For Montana ranchers, farmers, and municipalities, the next several weeks of weather will be critical. If warm and dry conditions persist, pressure on water allocation systems — and emergency fire preparedness resources — will intensify heading into summer. The situation is also likely to factor into broader discussions about natural resource management and long-term water planning across the Mountain West.
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