Why It Matters
With Montana’s Western District congressional seat drawing a crowded field of candidates from both parties, a new poll offers the clearest picture yet of where voter sentiment stands heading into the primary. The race carries significance beyond Montana’s borders, as control of a competitive congressional district could influence the balance of power in Washington.
What Happened
A poll conducted by the Rutgers-New Brunswick Eagleton Institute of Politics surveyed registered voters in Montana’s Western District, finding that Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen holds the highest favorability among Republican candidates, while former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse leads on the Democratic side.
The survey was fielded between late April and early May 2026, gathering responses from 815 registered Montana voters recruited through a probability-based method using the state’s official voter file. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
By the Numbers
- 32% of all respondents viewed Busse favorably; 27% viewed Jacobsen favorably overall.
- Among Democrats, 75% held a favorable view of Busse, compared to 55% for Sam Forstag and 47% for Russell Cleveland.
- Among Republicans, Jacobsen earned a 41% favorability rating, narrowly ahead of conservative radio host Aaron Flint at 40%; former state legislator Al “Doc” Olszewski registered 29% among Republican respondents.
- Busse captured 43% of the vote in the 16 counties comprising the Western District in 2024, though he received only 38.6% statewide in that cycle.
- 55% of Republican voters said they are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by President Trump.
The Republican Field
While Jacobsen leads in favorability, Flint is a formidable competitor. The talk radio host paced all Republican candidates in first-quarter fundraising and led the entire field in PAC contributions. Critically, President Trump has issued an endorsement of Flint — a factor that could prove decisive given that a majority of Republican voters in the state say a Trump endorsement makes them more likely to back a candidate.
Jacobsen, who serves as Montana’s secretary of state, showed notable electoral strength in 2024, outperforming President Trump in her own race with 61.4% of the statewide vote. That performance underscores her appeal to a broad coalition of Republican-leaning voters. Olszewski, who previously ran in the 2022 U.S. House primary, rounds out the GOP field but trails significantly in name recognition and favorability.
The Democratic Field
Busse’s name recognition advantage is substantial on the Democratic side, stemming from his 2024 gubernatorial run. However, the primary remains competitive. Forstag leads all candidates in total campaign spending, yet more than half of respondents — 53% — said they could not identify him, suggesting his financial edge has not yet translated into voter awareness.
Cleveland, one of only two candidates in the race who has accepted zero PAC contributions, was recognizable to 58% of voters — a notable figure for a candidate operating without outside money. Fellow no-PAC candidate Matt Rains remains largely unknown, with 60% of respondents unable to identify him. The poll did not include Libertarian Nick Sheedy or independent Kimberly Persico.
Zoom Out
Montana’s Western District race is shaping up as one of the more closely watched congressional contests in the Mountain West region. The district, which leans competitive compared to eastern Montana’s more solidly Republican terrain, has attracted significant outside money and candidate investment from both parties. The dynamics mirror broader national trends in which underfunded Democratic challengers face pressure from centrist-leaning independent and moderate campaigns while Republicans navigate the weight of Trump’s endorsement influence on primary outcomes.
Federal land policy is also likely to be a prominent issue for Western District voters. The recent Senate confirmation of Steve Pearce to lead the Bureau of Land Management highlights the ongoing tension over public lands management that tends to drive voter priorities across rural Montana.
What’s Next
Primary elections will determine which candidates from each party advance to the general election for the Western District seat. Candidates will continue fundraising and building name recognition through the summer, with Trump’s endorsement of Flint expected to remain a central dynamic in the Republican race as voting approaches.
About the Author
