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Why It Matters
Montana’s Fish, Wildlife and Parks agency has acknowledged a significant overcount in its statewide wolf population, potentially reshaping how the state manages predator harvests and balances competing interests between wildlife conservation and livestock protection. The revised estimates affect hunting quotas, regional management strategies, and the state’s ability to meet federal recovery standards for the species.
What Happened
FWP released an updated population model called iPOM 2.0 that cuts its 2025 wolf population estimate from 1,094 animals to 725 animals, with a range of 618 to 836. The original iPOM model had been in use for years before the revision.
The discrepancy means Montana has overstated its wolf numbers by several hundred across the state. The agency now recommends cutting next season’s statewide harvest quota to 250 animals, down from 450 in the previous season.
Hunters and trappers killed 247 wolves during the 2025-26 season that ended March 15, marking the lowest harvest since 2016. The kill included 145 wolves taken by hunters and 102 by trappers. Regional harvests varied significantly: northwest Montana accounted for 98 animals, west-central Montana 79, Region 3 claimed 54, central Montana saw 10, southern Montana 2, and management units north of Yellowstone contributed 4.
The Model Behind the Numbers
iPOM 2.0 relies on annual hunter surveys, documented wolf locations, and estimates of pack size and territory ranges rather than direct field counts. The model has not yet undergone peer review, a step typically required in scientific research before acceptance by the broader community.
FWP established a benchmark of 450 wolves as the minimum population needed to maintain 15 breeding pairs—the threshold required by federal law to keep the species off the Endangered Species List. The revised population estimate raises questions about whether Montana’s current wolf numbers meet that federal recovery standard.
What Comes Next
The Montana Fish and Wildlife Commission is scheduled to meet August 19 to consider the agency’s proposals. Beyond the harvest quota reduction, FWP has suggested implementing a 15-wolf quota for management removals—wolves killed when they pose direct threats to human safety, livestock, or dogs.
The revised model and proposed regulations are now open for public comment and review before the commission votes.
Reaction and Context
Wildlife advocates and researchers have responded to the revision differently. One conservation group characterized the acknowledgment as vindicating long-standing criticism of the state’s methodology. Rob Crabtree of the Yellowstone Ecological Research Center described the revision as “a great first step” and noted the update addresses suggestions he had previously offered.
The overestimate underscores the complexity of wildlife management in Montana, where wolf recovery has remained contentious since the species was reintroduced to the Northern Rockies in the mid-1990s. Ranchers have long sought aggressive wolf management to protect livestock, while conservation groups have pushed for robust protections. State officials must navigate those competing pressures while also meeting federal legal requirements.
The revised population estimates may give FWP more flexibility in setting quotas that satisfy both stakeholders, though the lower overall numbers could constrain harvest opportunities for hunters and trappers who see wolf management as critical to elk population health in some regions.
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