Republican and Independent Candidates Outraise Montana Democrats in Federal Races
Why It Matters
Montana Democrats are facing a significant fundraising deficit heading into a competitive federal election cycle, raising questions about whether the party can mount a serious challenge in the U.S. Senate race or hold ground in the Western Congressional District. The early money advantage held by a Republican and an independent candidate could shape how the 2026 race unfolds across the state.
What Happened
Campaign finance reports filed ahead of Wednesday’s federal deadline revealed a stark fundraising gap between Republican and independent candidates and their Democratic counterparts in Montana’s U.S. Senate race. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, leads all Senate candidates with $1.14 million cash on hand after registering his candidacy on March 4.
Republican Kurt Alme, the former U.S. attorney for the District of Montana who was twice appointed by President Donald Trump and endorsed by Sen. Steve Daines, reported $908,956 available to spend. Alme faces only token opposition in his primary — two challengers with zero dollars reported.
By contrast, five Democratic U.S. Senate candidates combined hold just $131,759 cash on hand. Reilly Neill, a former state legislator from Livingston who has been campaigning since November 2024, accounts for roughly $104,000 of that total.
As an independent, Bodnar must gather 13,327 signatures from qualified voters by May 26 to secure a spot on the November ballot. His fundraising ledger includes $26,050 from six political action committees, four of which previously backed former Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and two-time Western District House candidate Monica Tranel.
By the Numbers
- $1.14 million — Seth Bodnar (independent) cash on hand
- $908,956 — Kurt Alme (Republican) cash on hand
- $131,759 — Combined cash on hand for all five Democratic Senate candidates
- $429,399 — Aaron Flint (Republican), leading all candidates in Montana’s Western Congressional District race
- $368,145 — Ryan Busse (Democrat), second among all Western District candidates
Context: A Historic Low for Montana Democrats
The last time Montana Democrats in a U.S. Senate race reported less than $150,000 for the first fundraising quarter of an election year was 1988, when incumbent Sen. John Melcher and challenger Bob Kelleher combined for $144,059. That cycle ended in the first victory for Republican Conrad Burns, who went on to serve three terms.
Montana Democratic Party Executive Director Emily Marburger pushed back on the narrative, saying in a prepared statement: “Democrats still believe in democratic choice — that’s why we have a slate of working-class candidates running to improve the lives of everyday Montanans.” Marburger framed the spending by Bodnar and Alme as “big, corporate money” flowing to “wealthy elites.”
Former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who challenged Burns in 2000 as a longshot, told the newsletter Capitolized that fundraising can accelerate after a primary concludes. “Once the primary election is over, money will flow to the Democratic candidate if that candidate has a chance of winning,” Schweitzer said, recounting how a late TV ad buy nearly closed the gap against Burns.
Western District Race More Competitive
The fundraising picture in Montana’s Western Congressional District — where Rep. Ryan Zinke is retiring — is more balanced. Republican Aaron Flint, a longtime talk radio host and veteran, leads the field with $429,399 in the bank. About a quarter of his funds come from political action committees, including PACs tied to Zinke, Sen. Tim Sheehy, Sen. Steve Daines, and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen.
Republican Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen reported $253,387, and former state lawmaker Al Olszewski posted $282,121. On the Democratic side, Ryan Busse — the party’s 2024 gubernatorial candidate — reported $368,145 in cash on hand, with Sam Forstag close behind at $212,542, backed largely by labor PACs.
The strong early showings by Republican-aligned candidates mirror a broader trend in the Mountain West, where some Republican legislative candidates are also attracting longtime Democratic donors, reflecting shifting political alignments across the region.
What’s Next
Bodnar faces a critical deadline of May 26 to submit the required 13,327 voter signatures to qualify for the November ballot. Montana’s Democratic primary will determine which candidate faces the Republican and independent in the general election. Analysts will be watching whether post-primary fundraising can close the gap, as well as where the PACs currently supporting Bodnar direct their larger independent expenditure spending as the race develops.
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