Why It Matters
Affordable housing has become increasingly scarce across the United States, fundamentally altering the landscape for first-time homebuyers and working-class families. The disappearance of entry-level inventory in major metropolitan areas signals a deepening affordability crisis that extends well beyond coastal hotspots.
What Happened
A recent analysis by Movoto by Lower examined active single-family home listings in U.S. cities with populations exceeding 100,000. The study compared inventory levels across five price points between 2020 and 2026, revealing a dramatic contraction in affordable housing stock.
Six years ago, homes priced under $400,000 comprised the majority of the market in major U.S. cities. Today, those properties represent less than 30% of available inventory in many areas. The median share of listings below this threshold fell from 72.6% to just 28% across 228 cities analyzed.
The shift was driven by rising home prices and a surge in buyer demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. As buyers from expensive markets like Los Angeles and San Francisco migrated to more affordable destinations such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, local inventory dried up rapidly.
By The Numbers
- Median Inventory Drop: The median share of homes under $400,000 fell from 72.6% in 2020 to 28% in 2026.
- California Extremes: In Hesperia, the share of sub-$400,000 listings plummeted from nearly 90% to just 7%. Victorville saw a drop from 96.2% to fewer than 20%.
- Total Disappearance: Ten major cities had zero active single-family listings under $400,000 in May 2026. Nine of these were in California; Coral Springs, Florida, was the only outlier.
- Regional Contrast: While coastal and southwestern markets tightened, Midwest cities like Detroit (96.4%), Cleveland, Toledo, and Lansing still have more than 94% of listings under $400,000.
Zoom Out
The data highlights a stark geographic divide in the American housing market. Cities that once offered affordable entry points for middle-income buyers are now out of reach for many. In Fontana and Riverside, California, shares of sub-$400,000 listings dropped from 26.5% and 20.7%, respectively, to zero.
The trend is not limited to the $400,000 threshold. Inventory declined across all analyzed price points. At $350,000, the typical share of listings fell from 58% to 14.8%. At $300,000, the share dropped from 42.4% to just 5.4%. Even at the higher $500,000 mark, availability shrank from 84.6% in 2020 to 55.7% in 2026.
This contraction coincides with a significant shift in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was just 3.15% in late May 2020, fueling the initial demand surge that depleted inventory. Today’s higher rates compound the shortage, making the remaining affordable stock even more competitive.
The legislative response to this housing crunch remains a focal point for policymakers. Lawmakers have attempted to address supply constraints through various measures, including efforts to boost housing supply and restrict corporate home buying. However, the data suggests that market forces have outpaced policy interventions in many regions.
What’s Next
As inventory remains tight, buyers face continued pressure on both price and availability. The divergence between Midwest affordability and West Coast scarcity is likely to persist without significant new construction or policy shifts. For Idahoans and other Mountain West residents, these national trends underscore the importance of local housing supply initiatives to prevent similar inventory depletion.
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