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Why It Matters
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States reached 15.8 million by mid-2024, marking the highest level on record and signaling a dramatic reversal after more than a decade of stability. The sharp increase has implications for border security policy, labor markets, and federal immigration enforcement priorities under the current Trump administration.
What Happened
The Migration Policy Institute released data this week documenting the scope of unauthorized immigration growth. The unauthorized population had held relatively steady at approximately 11 million people from 2010 through 2019, but expanded rapidly over the next five years.
Between 2019 and 2024, the unauthorized immigrant population grew by roughly 5 million people, representing an average annual growth rate of 8 percent. The most significant surge occurred between 2022 and 2023, when the population increased by 1.6 million in a single year.
The composition of the unauthorized population has also shifted substantially. In 2010, Mexican nationals made up 62 percent of the unauthorized immigrant population. By 2024, that share had declined to 35 percent, reflecting broader diversification of immigration sources beyond Mexico.
The Biden Administration’s Role
The expansion coincided with immigration policies adopted during the Biden administration. Officials created humanitarian parole programs targeting migrants from Afghanistan, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Ukraine, and Venezuela. The administration also deployed the CBP One app, which allowed migrants to schedule asylum application appointments at ports of entry.
In 2023, the administration established two additional humanitarian parole processes. Combined, these programs admitted approximately 1.4 million immigrants into the United States.
The current Trump administration has moved to reverse those policies. Officials have ended humanitarian parole protections and converted the CBP One app into what they characterize as a self-deportation tool. The administration is also working to terminate Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants currently in the country.
By the Numbers
- 15.8 million: unauthorized immigrant population as of mid-2024
- 5 million: net population growth between 2019 and 2024
- 8 percent: average annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024
- 1.6 million: population increase in the single year between 2022 and 2023
- 1.4 million: total immigrants admitted through humanitarian parole programs
What’s Expected
The Migration Policy Institute suggested that the unauthorized population trajectory could shift if current enforcement policies succeed. According to the institute’s analysis, “Should the administration succeed in its efforts to sizably ramp up deportations and if border entries remain at their remarkably low levels, the unauthorized immigrant population may begin to decrease into 2026 and beyond.”
The Trump administration has signaled aggressive deportation enforcement as a cornerstone of its immigration strategy. Recent executive orders and policy directives have prioritized removals and tightened asylum access.
The data release comes amid ongoing debate over border security and immigration policy. The rapid growth documented by the Migration Policy Institute underscores the scale of the enforcement challenge facing federal authorities and the stakes involved in the administration’s enforcement agenda.
Related policy developments include changes to the asylum process, which have streamlined how the government handles certain migrant applications.
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