New Jersey Special Election Thursday Could Shrink House GOP’s Already Narrow Majority
Why It Matters
The outcome of a special election Thursday in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District could further tighten the already razor-thin Republican majority in the U.S. House — with direct consequences for how Speaker Mike Johnson can move legislation through Washington. Every seat counts in a chamber where the margin for error is already slim.
Republican Joe Hathaway, a Randolph Township council member and former mayor, is making a long-shot bid to hold the seat in Republican hands. A loss would reduce the number of GOP defections Johnson can afford on party-line votes from two to just one.
What Happened
Voters in New Jersey’s 11th District head to the polls Thursday to fill the congressional seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill, who was elected governor in November. The contest pits progressive Democrat Analilia Mejia against Republican Hathaway in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wide margin.
Mejia, who has never held elected office, won the Democratic special primary in February after a crowded field that included former Rep. Tom Malinowski. She previously served as national political director for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign and later led the New Jersey Working Families Alliance, where she championed a $15 minimum wage.
Hathaway has positioned himself as a moderate, self-described “commonsense, independent” candidate, openly courting Democrats who have concerns about Mejia’s far-left policy positions. “If they’re really concerned about Analilia, there’s an opportunity to test drive a Republican for six months,” Hathaway said.
Both candidates are also running in their respective party primaries in June for the full two-year term beginning in January.
By the Numbers
- ~65,000 — the registered Democrat advantage over Republicans in the 11th District, according to New Jersey’s Department of Elections
- 2 — the number of GOP defections House Speaker Mike Johnson can currently absorb on party-line votes before losing a measure
- 1 — the number of defections Johnson could afford if Democrats pick up the seat
- $2 million — the amount spent by the United Democracy Project, a super PAC aligned with AIPAC, on ads attacking Malinowski during the Democratic primary
- 3rd place — where former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way finished in the February Democratic primary after being endorsed by a pro-Israel group
The AIPAC Factor
The Democratic primary was significantly shaped by outside spending. The United Democracy Project, a super PAC aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent $2 million attacking Malinowski — who had a strong pro-Israel voting record — over his stated opposition to providing unconditional aid to Israel.
The effort backfired. Mejia, who was the only candidate during a forum to raise her hand when asked if she agreed with human rights groups accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza — a claim Israel denies — emerged as the winner. Malinowski later endorsed Mejia and campaigned with her ahead of Thursday’s vote.
“If AIPAC had never gotten involved, Tom Malinowski would be going to Congress right now,” said Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky, who ran a super PAC supporting Malinowski.
Zoom Out
The New Jersey race is one of several elections across the country testing the durability of Republican House control in 2026. As Wyoming’s crowded House race illustrates, Republicans face competitive battles in multiple districts that could reshape congressional power in the months ahead. Meanwhile, questions about voter data and election integrity continue to draw scrutiny at the state level across the country.
A Mejia victory would be widely viewed as a win for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party — particularly Sanders, who endorsed her — and could embolden far-left candidates in future primaries. Hathaway is hoping that voters’ economic frustrations, including costs at the grocery store and gas pump, will drive ticket-splitting in a district that leans heavily Democratic.
What’s Next
Results from Thursday’s special election are expected to be reported later in the evening. The winner will be seated relatively quickly and will immediately affect the balance of power in the House.
Both Mejia and Hathaway will also face voters again in June primaries for the full-term seat. A spokesperson for the United Democracy Project previously indicated the group would monitor the June primary, though no strong challenger to Mejia has emerged in the Democratic field.
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