India Launches Strikes Across Pakistan-Controlled Territory
Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following a series of missile and air strikes by India early Wednesday. According to Indian officials, the strikes targeted nine sites across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to last month’s deadly attack on Indian tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.
Indian military sources described the strikes as focused and time-bound, lasting approximately 25 minutes, and aimed at dismantling what they identified as infrastructure used by militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen.
Pakistan’s government acknowledged strikes in six locations but denied that these areas contained militant facilities. Islamabad also claimed to have shot down five Indian jets and a drone—an assertion India has not confirmed.
Civilian Casualties Reported on Both Sides
Following the strikes, artillery shelling across the Line of Control (LoC)—the de facto border dividing Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir—resulted in civilian deaths on both sides. India reported 10 fatalities from Pakistani shelling, while Pakistan stated that 26 people were killed and 46 injured from Indian air raids and artillery fire.
Strategic Targets and Military Messaging
Indian officials stated the strikes went deeper into Pakistani territory than previous operations, hitting locations up to 100 kilometers from the border. These included alleged militant headquarters in Bahawalpur and training sites near Sialkot and Muzaffarabad.
Experts note that the strikes appear broader in geographic scope than India’s 2016 and 2019 operations. Former Indian diplomat Ajay Bisaria described them as a “Balakot plus” response—targeted yet paired with strategic communication aimed at de-escalation.
Indian analysts suggest that the operation’s intent was to “re-establish deterrence,” reflecting a military doctrine of periodic action to maintain strategic dominance. However, they caution that such actions can prompt strong countermeasures from Pakistan.
Likelihood of Retaliation from Pakistan
Political and military analysts widely expect Pakistan to respond. The scale and visibility of the Indian strikes, including reported damage at high-profile sites, heighten pressure on the Pakistani military to act. Analysts point to the risk of a limited conventional conflict if retaliatory strikes are carried out across the LoC or into Indian territory.
Pakistan-based analysts suggest any response could involve surgical strikes on Indian military positions, maintaining proportionality to avoid broader war.
Domestic Pressures in Pakistan Could Influence Response
Observers note a change in Pakistan’s internal political climate compared to previous crises. With former Prime Minister Imran Khan imprisoned and public dissatisfaction with the military’s political role growing, there is less public enthusiasm for conflict. However, analysts caution that shifts in public opinion, particularly in Punjab province, could lead to renewed support for military action.
Diplomatic Pathways and Risk of Escalation
Despite the severity of the situation, some experts believe the crisis could follow a familiar pattern of reciprocal military action followed by diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. India has taken several immediate measures, including suspending diplomatic ties, revoking visas, and barring Pakistani aircraft from its airspace.
Similar moves occurred in 2019 after the Pulwama attack, which also saw an aerial confrontation and temporary detention of an Indian pilot. In that case, both countries stepped back from the brink after initial retaliation.
The coming days will likely determine whether the crisis intensifies or de-escalates through international mediation and direct diplomatic engagement.
