Why It Matters
A Thursday special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District will determine the fate of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s already razor-thin majority. The winner will serve immediately, affecting the balance of power in Washington.
The race also tests whether primary spending by outside groups backfired, after a pro-Israel PAC’s attacks on a moderate Democrat may have inadvertently boosted a progressive candidate who now leads in the general election.
What Happened
Democrat Analilia Mejia and Republican Joe Hathaway will face voters Thursday to fill the seat vacated when Rep. Mikie Sherrill was elected governor in November. Mejia won a contentious Democratic primary in February after the United Democracy Project, a super PAC aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent $2 million attacking former Rep. Tom Malinowski.
The attacks portrayed Malinowski as supportive of federal immigration enforcement, citing his 2019 vote for a spending bill that funded Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Despite Malinowski’s strong pro-Israel voting record during his two terms representing a nearby district, the group took issue with his willingness to place conditions on aid to Israel.
Mejia, who served as national political director for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign and has united most of the state Democratic Party behind her, is favored in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 65,000.
By The Numbers
65,000: Approximate Democratic registration advantage over Republicans in the district
$2 million: Amount spent by pro-Israel super PAC attacking Malinowski in the primary
Two: Number of Republican defections Speaker Johnson can currently afford on party-line votes
Six months: Length of term the winner will serve before January, when the full two-year term begins
February 2026: When Mejia won the special Democratic primary
Zoom Out
The race has become a test case of outside spending in Democratic primaries. Malinowski, who described himself as a Zionist and maintained a pro-Israel voting record, later wrote that the attacks were meant to intimidate Democrats who ask questions about aid conditions. He warned the approach could shrink support for the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Hathaway, a Randolph Township council member and self-described moderate, is attempting to win over Democrats who view Mejia as too progressive for the district. He has positioned himself as a commonsense independent willing to break with his party.
Mejia has focused her campaign on economic concerns, telling voters that prices at gas pumps and grocery stores should inform their decision. She has framed the race as a choice about whether to send someone to Congress who will oppose the Trump administration’s agenda.
What’s Next
The winner will be sworn in immediately and cast votes that could determine whether legislation passes in the closely divided House. Both candidates are also running in June primaries for the full term beginning in January. The United Democracy Project has indicated it will monitor the June race, though no strong challenger to Mejia has emerged after a third-place finisher declined to run again.
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