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Montana’s Western U.S. House District has its two November candidates locked in following Tuesday’s primary elections, with Republican Aaron Flint earning his party’s nomination in under an hour after polls closed and Democrat Sam Forstag edging out a four-candidate field by early Wednesday morning.
Why It Matters
The Western District seat — covering 16 counties across western Montana — opened up after incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke, 65, announced he would not seek reelection due to health concerns. Zinke’s departure sets the stage for a generational shift: Flint is 46 and Forstag just 31, a contrast that marks the first federal House contest in Montana in roughly three decades that won’t feature a baby boomer candidate.
The seat carries significant weight for Montana conservatives. Flint entered the race immediately after Zinke made his announcement, and quickly assembled a formidable list of endorsements that included Zinke himself, President Donald Trump, Rep. Troy Downing, and Senators Tim Sheehy and Steve Daines.
What Happened
Flint’s primary victory was called less than one hour after polls closed Tuesday evening. By Wednesday morning, he held roughly 50 percent of the Republican vote. Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen finished second with 24 percent, followed by Al Olszewski at 20 percent. Ray Curtis received just under 7 percent.
The Democratic race took longer to resolve. The Associated Press called it at 11:22 a.m. Wednesday in favor of Forstag, a smokejumper and union representative from Missoula. With 96 percent of ballots counted, Forstag held 37 percent of the vote, leading second-place finisher Ryan Busse by approximately four percentage points. Busse, who received 33 percent, conceded the race. Russell Cleveland took 22 percent and Matt Rains received 8 percent.
Forstag would be the first candidate aligned with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ progressive movement to win a federal primary in Montana. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Montana to campaign on Forstag’s behalf on May 28, and Sanders himself offered an endorsement.
Forstag framed his win as a mandate for working-class voters. “Today, people across Montana made clear that we’re ready to send working class representation to Washington so that we can fight for ourselves,” he said following the AP’s call.
By the Numbers
- 50% — Flint’s share of the Republican primary vote Wednesday morning
- 37% — Forstag’s share in the four-candidate Democratic primary
- 24% — Christi Jacobsen’s Republican primary vote share
- 4 percentage points — Forstag’s margin over Busse with 96% of votes in
- 16 — counties comprising Montana’s Western District
Zoom Out
The race offers a study in contrasts heading into November. Flint enters with the backing of Montana’s entire Republican congressional delegation and the White House, giving him a structural advantage in a state that has trended reliably Republican in federal elections. A pre-primary poll examining favorability ratings in the Western District showed both Jacobsen and Busse with competitive recognition, though Flint’s swift endorsement haul helped consolidate the GOP field around him early.
On the Democratic side, Forstag’s candidacy represents an attempt to test whether a Sanders-aligned progressive can compete in a district that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. House in decades. His background as a smokejumper and union rep may give him crossover appeal in rural communities, but the ideological backing of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez could complicate that pitch in a state that Donald Trump carried decisively.
For historical context, Democrat Max Baucus was 33 when he first won Montana’s U.S. House seat in 1974; Republican Denny Rehberg was 45 when he was elected in 2000. Forstag, at 31, would be among the youngest Montanans ever elected to the chamber if he prevails.
What’s Next
Flint and Forstag will face off in the November general election for the Western District seat. The race is expected to draw national attention and significant outside spending given the open-seat dynamic and the competing visions the two nominees represent. Observers will also watch how closely Forstag can tie Flint to national Republican priorities, and whether Flint’s Trump-endorsed campaign can replicate the president’s margins across the district’s 16 counties.
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