Why It Matters
Wyoming’s Bighorn Basin is facing what land managers are calling a worst-case combination: a massive 2025 wildfire scar, historically weak snowpack, and a drought so severe that fire-damaged rangelands may not recover before the next fire season begins. The conditions raise serious concerns for ranchers, wildlife habitat, and public land managers across the state.
What Happened
The Red Canyon Fire, which swept through Hot Springs County during the summer of 2025, left a scar covering roughly 195 square miles — nearly 125,000 acres. Under normal circumstances, the following spring would have brought enough moisture and vegetation growth to begin restoring the burned landscape. Instead, the winter of 2025–2026 turned out to be the warmest on record, and spring snowpack came in at the sparsest ever recorded in the region.
The result is a landscape struggling to bounce back. Vegetation moisture levels in the Bighorn Basin have already climbed to what would typically be July-level readings — in spring. Native grasses that should be pushing through the soil are largely absent or severely stunted.
Alicia Hummel, a rangeland management specialist with the BLM’s Cody Field Office, said native perennial grasses are currently at “a half or even a third” of their typical height and volume. “Those should be outgrowing the cheatgrass right now,” she said — but they’re not.
Derek Trauntvein of the U.S. Wildland Fire Service captured the situation plainly: “In a normal year, this would be lush green right now.”
The Cheatgrass Problem
One of the most troubling developments in the fire scar recovery is the behavior of cheatgrass, an invasive species that thrives in disturbed soils and dry conditions. Rather than serving as early-season ground cover before native plants take hold, cheatgrass in the Bighorn Basin is already drying out — creating fine, flashy fuel that ignites easily and spreads fire rapidly.
Lindsey Woodward, weed and pest coordinator for the Wyoming Department of Agriculture, and the Wyoming Weed and Pest Council are working to address the cheatgrass problem across the state. But the combination of poor soil moisture, weakened native grass competition, and an early fire season timeline is making management significantly more difficult.
By the Numbers
- 195 square miles — Size of the Red Canyon Fire scar in Hot Springs County
- Nearly 125,000 acres — Total extent of the Red Canyon Fire from summer 2025
- 15 of 23 — Wyoming counties with at least some area under “extreme” drought designation, per the U.S. Drought Monitor
- ~250 acres — Burned near Sagebrush Flat, west of Togwotee Pass, last month in what became the Bridger-Teton National Forest’s largest May wildfire on record
- 2024 — Wyoming recorded its second-highest total acreage burned in state history; only 1988 surpasses it
Zoom Out
The conditions in the Bighorn Basin reflect a broader pattern playing out across the Mountain West. Wyoming’s drought extends well beyond Hot Springs County — the U.S. Drought Monitor places most of the state under “severe” or worse conditions, with Hot Springs County specifically categorized as “severe.”
Governor Mark Gordon addressed the situation at an annual interagency wildfire briefing on May 28, signaling that state leadership is treating the fire season outlook as a serious public safety concern. With Wyoming already logging a second-worst-ever fire year in 2024, land managers are bracing for another difficult summer.
The stress on Wyoming’s working landscapes comes as ranchers and agricultural producers are already under financial pressure. Rocky Mountain Power’s proposed rate increases have added to the burden facing Wyoming farmers and rural property owners who depend on functioning rangeland.
The drought also poses a long-term threat to wildlife corridors and migration habitat across the region. Wyoming’s Path of the Pronghorn corridor, years in the making, depends on healthy sagebrush and grassland ecosystems — exactly the kind of habitat most at risk from consecutive drought and fire years.
What’s Next
Land managers and fire crews are preparing for what could be an early and active fire season. The degraded state of the Red Canyon Fire scar — combined with desiccated cheatgrass, stunted native vegetation, and ongoing drought — means that re-burn risk in already-damaged areas is elevated. Federal and state agencies are expected to coordinate closely on suppression resources and fire prevention efforts heading into the summer months.
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